$499,000 AMBER
LOT 18 Cotton Pt, West Howe Sound
2 bd · 1.0 ba · 644 sqft
· 77,101 sqft lot
· built 2009
· 165 DOM · MLS R3111716
Ocean viewWaterfrontMotivated sellerSeptic / well
Listing: Redfin search · fetched 2026-09-27T19:15
Description
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From listing remarks (Royal LePage Elite West)
Rating 53 /100
| Equity | 40.0/40 | +349,493 vs limit (+33.0% of ARV) | |
| Cash flow | 10.2/30 | -322/mo | |
| Suite-arb | 0.0/15 | no suite path | |
| Motivation | 3.0/15 | 170d on market, no cuts — anchored seller |
Offer case
Price can't fix this. rent test — needs 4,230/mo vs 2,542 estimated. Price cannot fix this; only higher rent (a suite) or a lower ARV would.
EVIDENCE
- Coast-wide, homes sell at 97.6% of list — a 2.4% discount is simply normal here.
- 170 days on market vs a 60-day median — but ZERO price cuts, so this reads as an anchored seller, not a motivated one.
- Asking $775/sqft where comparable homes sold at $552/sqft (+40%) — the ask is above the local clearing price.
- ARV confidence is LOW (thin or unrenovated comps) — the target price below could be off by 10%+ in either direction.
Support score 0.23 — evidence weight that this seller
would entertain the discount. Not a prediction; a checklist with numbers.
The four tests
Equity — PASS
(price + $40,000 reno + PTT+legal closing) <= 85% x ARV
all-in = $499,000 + $40,000 + $10,480 = $549,480
ARV = $1,057,615 → limit = 85% × ARV = $898,973
margin = $349,493 · at band low ($569,368): $-65,517 — GREEN needs this ≥ 0
Rent — FAIL
est. rent >= 0.40% x ARV
est. rent = $2,542/mo (whole house (2bd) $2,542)
floor = 0.4% × ARV $1,057,615 = $4,230/mo
rents table: West Howe Sound · as of 2026-08-02
Cash flow — PASS
rent - carrying >= -800/mo (PM-managed, typical rent, at ask)
payment $1,999 (loan $399,200 @ 4.4%/30y)
+ tax $198 (mls) + ins $158 + maint $127 + vac $153 + PM $229
carrying = $2,864/mo · rent $2,542 → cash flow = $-322/mo (floor $-800)
Suite-arb — FAIL
zone permits suite AND sqft >= 1,900 AND no suite language AND $/sqft < community median
zone ? suite:no · sqft 644 (min 1,900)
suite language: no · $/sqft 775 vs median 537
Scored 2026-10-02T05:55 · thresholds from criteria.yaml
Cash-flow scenarios $/mo · hover a cell for carrying cost
| Price | $2,542 typical self-managed |
$2,542 typical PM |
$2,829 high self-managed |
$2,829 high PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $499,000 | −$93 | −$322 | +$162 | −$92 |
| $474,050 −5.0% | +$7 | −$222 | +$262 | +$8 |
| $456,585 −8.5% | +$77 | −$152 | +$332 | +$78 |
Rents: rents.yaml as of 2026-08-02 · financing from criteria.yaml
Comps & ARV
ARV $1,057,615
range $569,368 – $1,240,172
(about half of comparable sales landed inside this band)
median $/sqft of 9 nearest size-matched sales × 101% paired reno premium (9 priced from list × measured sale ratio — ~3y registration lag) · confidence low
($/sqft used: 1,626)
| Sold | Dist | Sqft | Price | $/sqft | Date | Reno |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 619 Marine Dr | 4.48 km | 670 | ~$682,504 | 1,019 | 2025-12-18 | |
| 115 Williamsons Landing Rd | 6.06 km | 672 | ~$1,160,940 | 1,728 | 2026-04-27 | |
| 394 Pratt Rd | 6.34 km | 600 | ~$975,424 | 1,626 | 2026-04-02 | |
| 980 Woodley Rd | 13.24 km | 800 | ~$659,070 | 824 | 2025-11-06 | |
| 5699 Trident Ave | 24.15 km | 801 | ~$532,138 | 664 | 2026-02-11 | |
| 6121 Golf Course Rd | 26.26 km | 782 | ~$1,463,624 | 1,872 | 2026-03-13 | |
| 6815 Sandy Hook Trail | 27.2 km | 767 | ~$975,424 | 1,272 | 2026-01-20 | |
| 6075 Coracle Dr | 27.55 km | 713 | ~$1,170,704 | 1,642 | 2026-07-08 | |
| ~ = final list price × measured sale ratio (BC title registration lags ~3 years, so recent solds have no registered price; the proxy is within ~2% of the registered price when both exist) | ||||||
Solds from Redfin sold-search + public-records sale prices (belowTheFold)
Price & sale history
| 2026-08-03 | new | 499000 first seen at $499,000 |
| 2026-04-15 | Listed | $499,000 GVR |
History: Redfin belowTheFold · fetched 2026-09-27T20:45
· events observed by Coastwatch
Zoning & land
Unknown zone no suite / unknown
Zone not recognised. Check the bylaw before assuming anything.
| Wastewater | none mapped — septic likely (no suite carve-out) |
|---|---|
| Water | well / private — get well log + potability |
| Fire protection | none — insurance loads heavily |
— · fetched 2026-08-03T05:43 · meanings from zoning_rules.yaml (verify before relying)
Assessment
Not fetched yet — runs with the next enrichment pass.
Open questions
- Septic/well: age, last pump-out, and any permits on file? Get the well log and water potability test.
- No community water system mapped — well supply. Get the well log, flow rate (GPM) and a potability test before subjects come off.
- Outside every fire protection area — insurance will be heavily loaded or declined. Get a quote BEFORE offering.
- Zone None isn't in my rules file — read the bylaw and add it to zoning_rules.yaml.
- 165 days on market — ask the listing agent why it hasn't moved.