$765,000 GREY
315 Hairy Elbow Rd, Halfmoon Bay
1 bd · 0.5 ba · 320 sqft
· 474,804 sqft lot
· built 2025
· 193 DOM · MLS R3101428
Septic / well
Listing: Redfin search · fetched 2026-09-27T19:15
Description
Escape to your own private retreat this summer on 10.9 acres of level, forested land, rich w/ towering trees, a tranquil pond & complete seclusion. This unique property features two thoughtfully designed movable pod-style cabins one offering an open-concept kitchen, family room, & cozy wood stove, the other a spacious bedroom, full bath & storage. Enjoy seamless indoor-outdoor living with an outdoor shower connected directly to the cabin & beautiful cedar siding milled right from the property. Additional improvements include a storage/sleeping shed, carport, well, & rainwater collection system. Two separate driveways provide access to multiple building sites, inc
From listing remarks (Royal LePage Sussex)
Rating 3 /100
| Equity | 0/40 | -519,654 vs limit (-146.7% of ARV) | |
| Cash flow | 0/30 | -1,291/mo | |
| Suite-arb | 0.0/15 | no suite path | |
| Motivation | 3.0/15 | 198d on market, no cuts — anchored seller |
Offer case
GREEN at $237,000 — that's $528,000 (69.0%) below the $765,000 ask. Long shot
That discount is
29.2× what this market normally concedes.
EVIDENCE
- Coast-wide, homes sell at 97.6% of list — a 2.4% discount is simply normal here.
- 198 days on market vs a 60-day median — but ZERO price cuts, so this reads as an anchored seller, not a motivated one.
- Asking 216% of assessed value — priced above the roll.
- Asking $2,391/sqft where comparable homes sold at $541/sqft (+342%) — the ask is above the local clearing price.
- ARV confidence is LOW (thin or unrenovated comps) — the target price below could be off by 10%+ in either direction.
Support score 0.13 — evidence weight that this seller
would entertain the discount. Not a prediction; a checklist with numbers.
The four tests
Equity — FAIL
(price + $40,000 reno + PTT+legal closing) <= 85% x ARV
all-in = $765,000 + $40,000 + $15,800 = $820,800
ARV = $354,290 → limit = 85% × ARV = $301,146
margin = $-519,654 · at band low ($333,033): $-537,722 — GREEN needs this ≥ 0
Rent — PASS
est. rent >= 0.40% x ARV
est. rent = $2,542/mo (whole house (1bd) $2,542)
floor = 0.4% × ARV $354,290 = $1,417/mo
rents table: Halfmoon Bay · as of 2026-08-02
Cash flow — FAIL
rent - carrying >= -800/mo (PM-managed, typical rent, at ask)
payment $3,065 (loan $612,000 @ 4.4%/30y)
+ tax $101 (mls) + ins $158 + maint $127 + vac $153 + PM $229
carrying = $3,833/mo · rent $2,542 → cash flow = $-1,291/mo (floor $-800)
Suite-arb — FAIL
zone permits suite AND sqft >= 1,900 AND no suite language AND $/sqft < community median
zone ? suite:no · sqft 320 (min 1,900)
suite language: no · $/sqft 2,391 vs median 444
Scored 2026-10-02T05:55 · thresholds from criteria.yaml
Cash-flow scenarios $/mo · hover a cell for carrying cost
| Price | $2,542 typical self-managed |
$2,542 typical PM |
$2,829 high self-managed |
$2,829 high PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $765,000 | −$1,062 | −$1,291 | −$807 | −$1,061 |
| $726,750 −5.0% | −$909 | −$1,138 | −$653 | −$908 |
| $699,975 −8.5% | −$801 | −$1,030 | −$546 | −$801 |
Rents: rents.yaml as of 2026-08-02 · financing from criteria.yaml
Comps & ARV
ARV $354,290
range $333,033 – $389,719
(about half of comparable sales landed inside this band)
assessed value × 1.03 measured sale/assessed ratio (no usable comps) · confidence low
($/sqft used: —)
Cross-check: comps say —, BC Assessment × sale ratio says $354,290
| Sold | Dist | Sqft | Price | $/sqft | Date | Reno |
|---|
Solds from Redfin sold-search + public-records sale prices (belowTheFold)
Price & sale history
| 2026-08-03 | new | 765000 first seen at $765,000 |
| 2026-03-18 | Listed | $765,000 GVR |
History: Redfin belowTheFold · fetched 2026-09-27T20:45
· events observed by Coastwatch
Zoning & land
Unknown zone no suite / unknown
Zone not recognised. Check the bylaw before assuming anything.
| PID | 007-427-077 |
|---|---|
| Parcel | 315 HAIRY ELBOW RD (SCRD) |
| Wastewater | none mapped — septic likely (no suite carve-out) |
| Water | well / private — get well log + potability |
| Fire protection | none — insurance loads heavily |
— · fetched 2026-08-03T05:43 · meanings from zoning_rules.yaml (verify before relying)
Assessment
| Assessed total | $355,000 |
|---|---|
| Land / improvements | $355,000 / $0 (100% land — the higher, the more the value is in the dirt) |
| Assessed / ask | 0.46 |
| BCA folio | 746.05318.325 |
BC Assessment via SCRD parcel layer · fetched 2026-08-03T05:55
Open questions
- Septic/well: age, last pump-out, and any permits on file? Get the well log and water potability test.
- No community water system mapped — well supply. Get the well log, flow rate (GPM) and a potability test before subjects come off.
- Outside every fire protection area — insurance will be heavily loaded or declined. Get a quote BEFORE offering.
- Zone None isn't in my rules file — read the bylaw and add it to zoning_rules.yaml.
- 193 days on market — ask the listing agent why it hasn't moved.